Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OO 3710 at 05:47 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day OO 3710 PVD 05:47 → DTW 07:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3720 PVD 16:52 → DTW 19:00 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3710 SkyWest	PVD 05:47	DTW 07:52	7%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 3723 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PVD 13:00	DTW 15:07	17%	8%	0.9%	64%
OO 3720 SkyWest	PVD 16:52	DTW 19:00	18%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON