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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 1197 at 05:45, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1197 JetBlue Flight history → PVD 05:45 FLL 08:52 12% 4% 1.3% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 23m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585 2h 35m Charlotte CLT 10:50 → FLL 12:57AA 2585 6h 54m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 19:58 → FLL 21:56DL 1489 8h 29m 99% 79%
JetBlueDetails → PVD 06:00 → JFK 06:59B6 1129 1h 22m New York JFK 08:21 → FLL 11:17B6 1601 5h 17m 95% 73%
AmericanDetails → PVD 11:25 → CLT 13:43AA 1569 1h 42m Charlotte CLT 15:25 → FLL 17:34AA 2397 6h 09m 95% 69%
DeltaDetails → PVD 13:00 → DTW 15:07DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 49m Detroit DTW 15:56 → FLL 19:00DL 1037 6h 00m 80% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON