Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 6192 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	PVD 05:50	IAD 07:29	5%	2%	3.6%	95%
UA 4504 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PVD 10:40	IAD 12:16	6%	0%	0.0%	94%
UA 4609 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PVD 10:25	IAD 12:01	8%	0%	0.0%	92%
UA 6159 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	PVD 14:46	IAD 16:34	21%	10%	2.7%	79%
UA 4078 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	PVD 19:40	IAD 21:21	27%	17%	3.2%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON