tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 1129 at 06:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1129 JetBlue Flight history → PVD 06:00 JFK 06:59 8% 3% 1.4% 97%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585 1h 18m Charlotte CLT 09:33 → JFK 11:33AA 822 5h 30m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034 6h 00m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398 8h 02m 98% 82%
JetBlueDetails → PVD 05:45 → FLL 08:52B6 1197 2h 27m Fort Lauderdale FLL 11:19 → JFK 14:13B6 2102 8h 28m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → PVD 13:00 → DTW 15:07DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Detroit DTW 17:59 → JFK 19:39DL 1316 6h 39m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360 2h 37m Chicago ORD 11:36 → JFK 14:48AA 3225 7h 40m 97% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON