Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3542 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3542 PVD 05:11 → MCO 08:07 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2876 PVD 17:39 → MCO 20:33 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3542 Southwest	PVD 05:11	MCO 08:07	3%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 4829 Southwest	PVD 10:46	MCO 13:40	11%	4%	1.3%	no record
WN 342 Southwest	PVD 18:06	MCO 21:00	22%	10%	1.2%	no record
B6 2876 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 17:39	MCO 20:33	26%	13%	1.5%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON