Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 50m	99%	88%
United Details →	PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa	1h 24m Dulles	IAD 08:53 → MSP 10:47UA 2604	5h 57m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	9h 11m	99%	84%
American Details →	PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360	2h 51m Chicago	ORD 11:50 → MSP 13:25AA 2448	7h 17m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:00 → DTW 15:07DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 12m	86%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON