Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 360 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 360 PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest OO 5251 PVD 16:44 → ORD 18:33 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 360 American Flight history →	PVD 07:08	ORD 08:59	12%	5%	2.5%	81%
OO 5747 SkyWest	PVD 09:49	ORD 11:35	21%	10%	2.9%	no record
YX 4798 Republic	PVD 13:32	ORD 15:24	24%	8%	2.7%	no record
YX 4797 Republic	PVD 17:27	ORD 19:22	25%	9%	2.4%	no record
UA 1935 United	PVD 11:31	ORD 13:19	26%	8%	1.7%	no record
OO 5251 SkyWest	PVD 16:44	ORD 18:33	31%	13%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON