Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1520 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 1520 PVD 06:09 → PHL 07:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5129 PVD 14:55 → PHL 16:21 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1520 American	PVD 06:09	PHL 07:40	7%	4%	1.6%	no record
OH 5585 PSA	PVD 08:11	PHL 09:42	13%	5%	2.5%	no record
OH 5608 PSA	PVD 10:48	PHL 12:13	18%	7%	3.4%	no record
AA 5189 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 19:26	PHL 20:52	24%	9%	3.5%	46%
OH 5135 PSA	PVD 17:21	PHL 18:46	25%	9%	2.5%	no record
OH 5129 PSA	PVD 14:55	PHL 16:21	25%	9%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON