Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35DL 1023	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	7h 32m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861	9h 02m	98%	83%
American Details →	PVD 06:03 → CLT 08:15AA 1585	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	8h 47m	98%	82%
United Details →	PVD 05:50 → IAD 07:29UA 6192 · flown by Mesa	1h 05m Dulles	IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021	6h 44m	96%	81%
JetBlue Details →	PVD 06:00 → JFK 06:59B6 1129	3h 01m New York	JFK 10:00 → SJU 14:14B6 503	8h 14m	100%	75%
JetBlue Details →	PVD 05:45 → FLL 08:52B6 1197	3h 13m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 12:05 → SJU 14:42B6 1453	8h 57m	99%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON