Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1515 Delta Flight history →	PWM 06:00	ATL 08:45	9%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2479 Delta Flight history →	PWM 13:55	ATL 16:46	17%	4%	0.6%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766	3h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	9h 18m	100%	90%
American Details →	PWM 05:55 → DCA 07:55AA 2884	3h 31m Washington	DCA 11:26 → ATL 13:33AA 4733 · flown by Republic	7h 38m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PWM 12:40 → DTW 14:40DL 426	3h 29m Detroit	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	7h 39m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821	2h 01m Detroit	DTW 20:55 → ATL 23:09DL 2294	6h 17m	94%	84%
American Details →	PWM 07:26 → PHL 09:14AA 1536	1h 52m Philadelphia	PHL 11:06 → ATL 13:22AA 1325	5h 56m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:20 → JFK 07:44DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor	3h 16m New York	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	7h 13m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PWM 11:02 → LGA 12:29DL 5361 · flown by Endeavor	2h 31m New York	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	7h 00m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PWM 14:59 → JFK 16:32DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor	2h 28m New York	JFK 19:00 → ATL 22:11DL 962	7h 12m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON