Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3547 at 13:06, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3547 Southwest	PWM 13:06	BNA 14:50	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 30m	98%	90%
United Details →	PWM 05:31 → IAD 07:32UA 3522 · flown by Republic	58m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29UA 1366	4h 58m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766	1h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612	6h 48m	98%	86%
American Details →	PWM 06:23 → ORD 08:19AA 4499 · flown by Republic	3h 13m Chicago	ORD 11:32 → BNA 13:16AA 2362	7h 53m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490	5h 57m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	PWM 12:40 → DTW 14:40DL 426	1h 21m Detroit	DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316	5h 00m	91%	77%
American Details →	PWM 10:56 → PHL 12:40AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont	3h 06m Philadelphia	PHL 15:46 → BNA 16:58AA 1280	7h 02m	100%	75%
American Details →	PWM 05:55 → DCA 07:55AA 2884	1h 09m Washington	DCA 09:04 → BNA 10:11AA 5085 · flown by PSA	5h 16m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON