Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2884 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2884 PWM 05:55 → DCA 07:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 1423 PWM 17:04 → DCA 19:04 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2884 American Flight history →	PWM 05:55	DCA 07:55	8%	5%	1.0%	62%
AA 5528 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PWM 12:27	DCA 14:22	19%	8%	1.9%	81%
AA 1423 American Flight history →	PWM 17:04	DCA 19:04	24%	9%	0.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON