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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 12:40, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 287 United Flight history → PWM 15:37 DEN 18:16 18% 6% 0.7% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PWM 05:31 → IAD 07:32UA 3522 · flown by Republic 2h 41m Dulles IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 8h 34m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821 2h 42m Detroit DTW 21:36 → DEN 22:44DL 1644 7h 52m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 7h 05m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → PWM 07:26 → PHL 09:14AA 1536 2h 10m Philadelphia PHL 11:24 → DEN 13:28AA 2082 8h 02m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746 8h 48m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → PWM 06:23 → ORD 08:19AA 4499 · flown by Republic 1h 26m Chicago ORD 09:45 → DEN 11:27AA 2363 7h 04m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → PWM 12:40 → DTW 14:40DL 426 1h 41m Detroit DTW 16:21 → DEN 17:27DL 2431 6h 47m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → PWM 10:55 → EWR 12:29UA 3405 · flown by Republic 2h 09m Newark EWR 14:38 → DEN 16:52UA 2444 7h 57m 96% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON