Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 12:40, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3301 American Flight history →	PWM 08:56	DFW 12:03	11%	5%	1.1%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 05:31 → IAD 07:32UA 3522 · flown by Republic	58m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471	6h 22m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	7h 44m	98%	85%
American Details →	PWM 05:55 → DCA 07:55AA 2884	2h 04m Washington	DCA 09:59 → DFW 12:11AA 795	7h 16m	98%	84%
American Details →	PWM 07:26 → PHL 09:14AA 1536	3h 38m Philadelphia	PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415	9h 05m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821	1h 52m Detroit	DTW 20:46 → DFW 22:32DL 1207	6h 40m	94%	79%
American Details →	PWM 10:56 → PHL 12:40AA 6124 · flown by Piedmont	2h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	7h 54m	99%	78%
American Details →	PWM 12:27 → DCA 14:22AA 5528 · flown by PSA	2h 49m Washington	DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414	8h 14m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766	58m Minneapolis	MSP 14:47 → DFW 17:16DL 2971	6h 29m	89%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PWM 12:27 → DCA 14:22AA 5528 · flown by PSA	51m Washington	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	6h 17m	74%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON