Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 426 Delta Flight history →	PWM 12:40	DTW 14:40	18%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history →	PWM 16:52	DTW 18:54	22%	7%	0.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 56m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	PWM 11:47 → MSP 13:49DL 1766	2h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	7h 12m	99%	87%
United Details →	PWM 05:31 → IAD 07:32UA 3522 · flown by Republic	1h 03m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → DTW 10:14UA 6137 · flown by Mesa	4h 43m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262	7h 16m	99%	82%
American Details →	PWM 06:23 → ORD 08:19AA 4499 · flown by Republic	1h 26m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DTW 12:05AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	5h 42m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	PWM 11:02 → LGA 12:29DL 5361 · flown by Endeavor	2h 00m New York	LGA 14:29 → DTW 16:34DL 308	5h 32m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	PWM 14:59 → JFK 16:32DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor	2h 58m New York	JFK 19:30 → DTW 22:04DL 1253	7h 05m	97%	73%
United Details →	PWM 10:55 → EWR 12:29UA 3405 · flown by Republic	1h 38m Newark	EWR 14:07 → DTW 16:07UA 3437 · flown by Republic	5h 12m	93%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PWM 17:15 → ORD 19:08UA 1828	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 20:12 → DTW 22:35UA 768	5h 20m	71%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON