Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 3537 at 08:12 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–34%.

Safest bet that day YX 3537 PWM 08:12 → EWR 09:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3551 PWM 15:42 → EWR 17:29 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3537 Republic	PWM 08:12	EWR 09:56	8%	3%	3.2%	no record
UA 1777 United	PWM 06:00	EWR 07:39	12%	5%	1.8%	no record
UA 3405 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 10:55	EWR 12:29	16%	4%	2.1%	88%
YX 3551 Republic	PWM 15:42	EWR 17:29	34%	12%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON