Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3522 PWM 05:31 → IAD 07:32 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest YX 3453 PWM 14:25 → IAD 16:28 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3522 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 05:31	IAD 07:32	4%	3%	1.0%	95%
YX 3494 Republic	PWM 09:55	IAD 12:08	7%	3%	1.4%	no record
UA 3582 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 19:16	IAD 21:14	10%	5%	1.2%	81%
YX 3453 Republic	PWM 14:25	IAD 16:28	13%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON