Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 5811 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–34%.

Safest bet that day YX 5811 PWM 06:31 → LGA 08:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2700 PWM 16:42 → LGA 18:18 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5811 Republic	PWM 06:31	LGA 08:12	9%	4%	2.9%	no record
AA 4571 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 10:45	LGA 12:26	18%	5%	1.7%	81%
YX 5803 Republic	PWM 17:27	LGA 19:09	33%	10%	1.7%	no record
AA 2700 American	PWM 16:42	LGA 18:18	34%	14%	1.0%	no record
DL 5361 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 11:02	LGA 12:29	16%	6%	1.6%	84%
DL 5346 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 13:12	LGA 14:44	31%	13%	2.4%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON