Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 1766 at 11:47, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1766 Delta Flight history →	PWM 11:47	MSP 13:49	10%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 05:31 → IAD 07:32UA 3522 · flown by Republic	1h 21m Dulles	IAD 08:53 → MSP 10:47UA 2604	6h 16m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:00 → ATL 08:45DL 1515	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 50m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	PWM 06:20 → JFK 07:44DL 5277 · flown by Endeavor	3h 51m New York	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	8h 30m	99%	84%
American Details →	PWM 07:26 → PHL 09:14AA 1536	3h 58m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → MSP 15:29AA 3294	9h 03m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	PWM 13:55 → ATL 16:46DL 2479	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	8h 43m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	PWM 11:02 → LGA 12:29DL 5361 · flown by Endeavor	2h 26m New York	LGA 14:55 → MSP 17:06DL 2349	7h 04m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	PWM 12:40 → DTW 14:40DL 426	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 32m	94%	77%
American Details →	PWM 06:23 → ORD 08:19AA 4499 · flown by Republic	3h 31m Chicago	ORD 11:50 → MSP 13:25AA 2448	8h 02m	97%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON