Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4499 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 4499 PWM 06:22 → ORD 08:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1828 PWM 17:15 → ORD 19:08 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4499 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:22	ORD 08:18	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
YX 3688 Republic	PWM 08:08	ORD 10:08	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2170 United	PWM 06:00	ORD 07:49	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 6046 SkyWest	PWM 11:38	ORD 13:28	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 17:30	ORD 19:30	12%	4%	0.7%	92%
AA 2717 American	PWM 13:59	ORD 15:56	14%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1828 United Flight history →	PWM 17:15	ORD 19:08	18%	5%	0.5%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON