Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OH 5211 at 13:14, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5211 PSA	RAP 13:14	CLT 18:30	20%	9%	2.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29DL 3927 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819	5h 09m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	RAP 11:00 → MSP 13:38DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	5h 49m	98%	85%
United Details →	RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37UA 5576 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Denver	DEN 09:51 → CLT 15:18UA 2231	8h 18m	97%	82%
American Details →	RAP 06:30 → DFW 10:00AA 4277 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	7h 06m	98%	79%
United Details →	RAP 12:35 → DEN 14:14UA 5742 · flown by SkyWest	3h 31m Denver	DEN 17:45 → CLT 23:08UA 616	8h 33m	98%	78%
American Details →	RAP 10:18 → DFW 13:42AA 3768 · flown by Envoy	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:59 → CLT 19:42AA 2013	7h 24m	99%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON