Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4277 RAP 06:30 → DFW 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest MQ 3788 RAP 12:56 → DFW 16:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4277 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 06:30	DFW 10:00	5%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 3768 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 10:18	DFW 13:42	8%	3%	0.8%	84%
AA 3532 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RAP 17:00	DFW 20:29	10%	3%	0.8%	74%
MQ 3788 Envoy	RAP 12:56	DFW 16:21	10%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON