tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, MQ 4019 at 11:42, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 4019 Envoy RAP 11:42 PHX 13:08 13% 4% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Rapid City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RAP 06:48 → MSP 09:29DL 3927 · flown by SkyWest 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 6h 58m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → RAP 05:00 → DEN 06:37UA 5576 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Denver DEN 09:50 → PHX 10:55UA 1782 6h 55m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → RAP 10:21 → DEN 11:58UA 5708 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 7h 14m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → RAP 07:00 → DEN 08:21UA 1767 3h 04m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 6h 25m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → RAP 11:00 → MSP 13:38DL 3971 · flown by SkyWest 1h 16m Minneapolis MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284 6h 09m 95% 83%
AmericanDetails → RAP 06:30 → DFW 10:00AA 4277 · flown by Envoy 2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:12AA 336 7h 42m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → RAP 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 5884 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Denver DEN 13:24 → PHX 14:26UA 631 6h 26m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → RAP 10:18 → DFW 13:42AA 3768 · flown by Envoy 2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:25 → PHX 17:14AA 1232 7h 56m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON