tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 3223 at 11:26, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3223 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → RDM 11:26 BUR 13:31 14% 5% 0.9% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 49m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → RDM 05:55 → SFO 07:33UA 702 1h 00m San Francisco SFO 08:33 → BUR 09:57UA 2363 4h 02m 96% 86%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 05:25 → PDX 06:15AS 2043 · flown by Horizon 1h 06m Portland PDX 07:21 → BUR 09:36AS 1551 4h 11m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262 2h 33m San Francisco SFO 18:05 → BUR 19:34UA 2001 5h 45m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188 2h 47m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 48m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 13:28 → SEA 14:36AS 276 1h 52m Seattle SEA 16:28 → BUR 18:57AS 530 5h 29m 95% 71%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon 2h 58m Seattle SEA 13:55 → BUR 16:24AS 529 6h 40m 99% 70%
AlaskaDetails → RDM 07:15 → SEA 08:28AS 2027 · flown by Horizon 1h 43m Seattle SEA 10:11 → BUR 12:40AS 478 5h 25m 98% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON