Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3773 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDM 05:30	PHX 07:57	5%	2%	0.8%	99%
AA 3929 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDM 14:27	PHX 16:54	10%	4%	0.7%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431	7h 07m	99%	87%
United Details →	RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188	1h 22m Denver	DEN 09:50 → PHX 10:55UA 1782	5h 55m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	RDM 12:15 → SLC 15:04DL 3727 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PHX 18:07DL 1451	5h 52m	99%	79%
United Details →	RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350	1h 48m Denver	DEN 18:30 → PHX 19:30UA 1507	6h 16m	93%	74%
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700	7h 01m	98%	72%
Alaska Details →	RDM 07:15 → SEA 08:28AS 2027 · flown by Horizon	1h 21m Seattle	SEA 09:49 → PHX 12:36AS 449	5h 21m	96%	69%
Alaska Details →	RDM 13:28 → SEA 14:36AS 276	2h 08m Seattle	SEA 16:44 → PHX 19:30AS 746	6h 02m	95%	66%
Alaska Details →	RDM 07:28 → SAN 09:50AS 2224 · flown by Horizon	3h 19m San Diego	SAN 13:09 → PHX 14:31AS 2024 · flown by Horizon	7h 03m	100%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	53m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → PHX 18:39UA 574	4h 50m	71%	53%
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	57m Seattle	SEA 11:54 → PHX 14:40AS 417	4h 56m	67%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON