Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 702 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 702 United Flight history →	RDM 05:55	SFO 07:33	4%	2%	0.7%	94%
UA 2262 United Flight history →	RDM 13:49	SFO 15:32	26%	10%	0.7%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDM 05:05 → SLC 07:48DL 4004 · flown by SkyWest	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	6h 58m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	RDM 05:25 → PDX 06:15AS 2043 · flown by Horizon	1h 04m Portland	PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526	3h 51m	96%	73%
American Details →	RDM 05:30 → PHX 07:57AA 3773 · flown by Envoy	2h 56m Phoenix	PHX 10:53 → SFO 12:58AA 3199	7h 28m	100%	69%
Alaska Details →	RDM 07:15 → SEA 08:28AS 2027 · flown by Horizon	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 11:42 → SFO 14:04AS 655	6h 49m	98%	68%
Delta Details →	RDM 06:13 → SEA 07:40DL 4036 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412	5h 51m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	RDM 13:28 → SEA 14:36AS 276	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385	5h 20m	95%	68%
United Details →	RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	6h 25m	95%	67%
United Details →	RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350	1h 12m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	6h 26m	88%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 13:05 → SAN 15:25AS 2415 · flown by Horizon	49m San Diego	SAN 16:14 → SFO 17:49AS 2314 · flown by Horizon	4h 44m	58%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON