Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4004 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 05:05	SLC 07:48	3%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 3727 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 12:15	SLC 15:04	5%	3%	0.7%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Redmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	RDM 05:30 → PHX 07:57AA 3773 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Phoenix	PHX 10:08 → SLC 12:55AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	6h 25m	100%	90%
United Details →	RDM 05:00 → DEN 08:28UA 1188	3h 12m Denver	DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963	7h 13m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	RDM 06:13 → SEA 07:40DL 4036 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	5h 23m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	RDM 13:27 → SEA 14:50DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	6h 39m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	RDM 16:00 → PDX 16:50AS 2167 · flown by Horizon	50m Portland	PDX 17:40 → SLC 20:41AS 3291 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m	82%	74%
Alaska Details →	RDM 07:15 → SEA 08:28AS 2027 · flown by Horizon	3h 23m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → SLC 15:04AS 733	6h 49m	98%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 09:44 → SEA 10:57AS 2076 · flown by Horizon	54m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → SLC 15:04AS 733	4h 20m	62%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON