Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1552 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–11%.

Safest bet that day DL 1552 RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1669 RDU 13:45 → ATL 15:29 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1552 Delta Flight history →	RDU 05:10	ATL 06:28	4%	1%	0.6%	95%
DL 1699 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:15	ATL 12:42	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1192 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:20	ATL 07:46	5%	1%	0.6%	95%
DL 2634 Delta Flight history →	RDU 09:58	ATL 11:22	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1530 Delta Flight history →	RDU 08:50	ATL 10:18	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2478 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:30	ATL 09:00	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1488 Delta Flight history →	RDU 13:47	ATL 15:20	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2052 Delta Flight history →	RDU 12:40	ATL 14:08	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2026 Delta Flight history →	RDU 15:35	ATL 17:05	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
F9 4797 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 06:15	ATL 08:08	9%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 1097 Delta Flight history →	RDU 19:59	ATL 21:39	9%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 1550 Delta Flight history →	RDU 17:25	ATL 19:01	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 2600 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:29	ATL 20:04	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
F9 1669 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 13:45	ATL 15:29	17%	7%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON