Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1083 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Safest bet that day WN 1083 RDU 07:06 → AUS 09:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 469 RDU 16:41 → AUS 18:46 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1083 Southwest	RDU 07:06	AUS 09:11	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 469 Southwest	RDU 16:41	AUS 18:46	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 4921 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 07:00	AUS 09:11	11%	4%	1.9%	89%
DL 4967 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 16:30	AUS 18:58	19%	8%	0.3%	81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 08:50 → ATL 10:18DL 1530	47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	4h 35m	91%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON