Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4808 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 4808 RDU 06:31 → BNA 07:14 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5152 RDU 18:11 → BNA 18:49 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4808 Southwest	RDU 06:31	BNA 07:14	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2511 Southwest	RDU 10:51	BNA 11:34	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 4762 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 09:42	BNA 10:33	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 5114 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 08:15	BNA 08:53	6%	2%	0.7%	83%
WN 733 Southwest	RDU 16:21	BNA 17:04	12%	2%	0.4%	no record
YX 4421 Republic	RDU 16:09	BNA 17:00	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5152 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	RDU 18:11	BNA 18:49	21%	4%	0.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON