Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1903 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 1903 RDU 05:01 → CLT 06:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1904 RDU 19:28 → CLT 20:34 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1903 American Flight history →	RDU 05:01	CLT 06:00	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 683 American Flight history →	RDU 06:57	CLT 07:58	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 1753 American	RDU 09:05	CLT 10:06	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1768 American	RDU 11:04	CLT 12:05	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2688 American Flight history →	RDU 12:42	CLT 13:43	19%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1749 American	RDU 13:55	CLT 15:01	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2704 American Flight history →	RDU 15:32	CLT 16:39	25%	4%	0.6%	76%
AA 1894 American Flight history →	RDU 17:41	CLT 18:47	35%	5%	0.6%	77%worse than usual
AA 1904 American Flight history →	RDU 19:28	CLT 20:34	36%	5%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON