Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4911 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 14:55	CVG 16:41	20%	8%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 07:35 → CVG 08:56DL 963	3h 46m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160	5h 05m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008	6h 43m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149	4h 58m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MCO 07:47DL 1337	3h 38m Orlando	MCO 11:25 → CVG 13:37DL 511	7h 37m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703	7h 04m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 08:50 → ATL 10:18DL 1530	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169	6h 21m	99%	85%
American Details →	RDU 06:24 → CLT 07:34AA 1903	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → CVG 12:29AA 1533	6h 05m	98%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	RDU 14:31 → MCO 16:32F9 1111	46m Orlando	MCO 17:18 → CVG 19:49F9 1565	5h 18m	72%	52%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:29 → LGA 13:12DL 4667 · flown by Endeavor	47m New York	LGA 13:59 → CVG 16:11DL 4949 · flown by Endeavor	4h 42m	49%	30%
Delta Details →	RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor	1h 18m New York	LGA 20:10 → CVG 22:35DL 5517 · flown by Endeavor	5h 30m	53%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON