Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2524 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 40–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 2524 RDU 06:31 → DCA 07:50 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4029 RDU 20:02 → DCA 21:11 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2524 American	RDU 06:31	DCA 07:50	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5627 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 10:35	DCA 11:47	21%	8%	1.4%	92%worse than usual
AA 5626 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 14:01	DCA 15:13	36%	11%	1.6%	72%
MQ 4053 Envoy	RDU 15:54	DCA 17:03	38%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 5404 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 18:19	DCA 19:31	40%	14%	2.6%	48%
AA 4029 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDU 20:02	DCA 21:11	46%	10%	1.2%	48%
DL 5006 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 06:00	DCA 07:19	18%	4%	1.2%	82%
DL 5198 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 19:47	DCA 21:20	51%	23%	8.1%	49%
DL 5310 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 15:42	DCA 17:07	53%	17%	2.3%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON