Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1088 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 1088 RDU 05:56 → DFW 07:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1888 RDU 19:27 → DFW 21:27 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1088 American Flight history →	RDU 05:56	DFW 07:56	7%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 1217 American Flight history →	RDU 07:47	DFW 10:00	10%	3%	0.8%	87%
AA 2683 American Flight history →	RDU 11:43	DFW 13:51	12%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	RDU 14:12	DFW 16:20	17%	6%	0.8%	72%
F9 2343 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 13:21	DFW 15:30	17%	6%	0.8%	79%
AA 2091 American Flight history →	RDU 16:54	DFW 19:01	23%	7%	0.8%	76%
AA 1888 American Flight history →	RDU 19:27	DFW 21:27	27%	7%	0.8%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON