Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2816 at 11:21, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2816 Southwest	RDU 11:21	HOU 13:11	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	5h 35m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 50m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 24m	100%	87%
American Details →	RDU 14:12 → DFW 16:20AA 2693	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	6h 36m	96%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON