Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1789 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 1789 RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest YX 3556 RDU 15:04 → IAD 16:25 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1789 United Flight history →	RDU 06:00	IAD 07:11	4%	2%	0.7%	96%
UA 1535 United Flight history →	RDU 10:32	IAD 11:43	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 2642 United Flight history →	RDU 19:52	IAD 21:15	14%	5%	0.6%	83%
YX 3556 Republic	RDU 15:04	IAD 16:25	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 6265 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 15:00	IAD 16:21	24%	17%	0.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON