Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1383 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1383 RDU 06:24 → IAH 08:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1741 RDU 17:31 → IAH 19:28 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1383 United Flight history →	RDU 06:24	IAH 08:15	10%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2407 United Flight history →	RDU 16:51	IAH 18:58	15%	6%	0.7%	83%
F9 1741 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 17:31	IAH 19:28	27%	8%	0.9%	80%
UA 6296 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 12:45	IAH 14:44	11%	2%	1.0%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON