Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 11:58	IND 13:56	21%	9%	2.4%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 07:30 → IND 09:00DL 3125	3h 50m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → IND 12:36DL 3013	6h 16m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 08:50 → IND 11:28DL 2456	5h 28m	95%	88%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 08:24 → IND 10:13UA 3561 · flown by Republic	4h 13m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → IND 15:19DL 3134	5h 21m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:33 → MSP 13:17DL 2519	2h 28m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → IND 18:22DL 1456	6h 49m	98%	85%
American Details →	RDU 05:54 → PHL 07:32AA 2781	3h 13m Philadelphia	PHL 10:45 → IND 12:55AA 5240 · flown by PSA	7h 01m	98%	85%
American Details →	RDU 10:35 → DCA 11:47AA 5627 · flown by PSA	2h 48m Washington	DCA 14:35 → IND 16:35AA 4452 · flown by Republic	6h 00m	100%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 11:29 → LGA 13:12DL 4667 · flown by Endeavor	1h 31m New York	LGA 14:43 → IND 17:13DL 5646 · flown by Republic	5h 44m	72%	55%
Delta Details →	RDU 15:01 → LGA 16:44DL 5184 · flown by Endeavor	58m New York	LGA 17:42 → IND 20:24DL 5635 · flown by Republic	5h 23m	58%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON