Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4805 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 4805 RDU 05:34 → JFK 07:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 1486 RDU 18:37 → JFK 20:19 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4805 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 05:34	JFK 07:19	5%	2%	1.3%	92%
AA 4765 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 12:08	JFK 13:59	18%	6%	1.2%	73%
YX 4424 Republic	RDU 20:04	JFK 21:51	25%	8%	1.2%	no record
B6 2786 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 13:13	JFK 14:55	26%	11%	1.4%	77%
B6 1486 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 18:37	JFK 20:19	33%	14%	2.2%	89%worse than usual
DL 5239 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 07:08	JFK 09:00	11%	6%	4.9%	89%
DL 5294 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 10:00	JFK 11:40	21%	11%	2.7%	79%
DL 5009 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 13:53	JFK 15:50	32%	16%	6.7%	68%
DL 5219 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 20:01	JFK 22:06	36%	18%	7.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON