Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:24, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2027 Delta Flight history →	RDU 07:04	LAS 08:57	11%	2%	0.6%	87%
WN 2098 Southwest	RDU 10:11	LAS 12:03	13%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	7h 21m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 31m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 40m	99%	86%
United Details →	RDU 06:24 → IAH 08:15UA 1383	3h 40m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	9h 49m	99%	86%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 42m Dulles	IAD 08:53 → LAS 10:54UA 1323	7h 54m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 39m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	7h 32m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549	7h 20m	100%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 13:53 → JFK 15:50DL 5009 · flown by Endeavor	1h 10m New York	JFK 17:00 → LAS 19:50DL 806	8h 57m	73%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON