Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:58, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 462 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:59	LAX 21:04	18%	6%	0.5%	86%
AA 2299 American	RDU 18:14	LAX 20:47	21%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 42m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	3h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	10h 23m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	9h 19m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MCO 07:47DL 1337	1h 58m Orlando	MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504	8h 49m	99%	89%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	2h 28m Dulles	IAD 09:39 → LAX 12:22UA 657	9h 22m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	7h 38m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	8h 35m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 11:15 → ATL 12:42DL 1699	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 15:40 → LAX 17:26DL 301	9h 11m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 13:53 → JFK 15:50DL 5009 · flown by Endeavor	52m New York	JFK 16:42 → LAX 19:22DL 747	8h 29m	66%	50%
American Details →	RDU 15:05 → PHL 16:34AA 5663 · flown by PSA	55m Philadelphia	PHL 17:29 → LAX 20:10AA 3123	8h 05m	65%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON