Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2036 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 2036 RDU 06:00 → LGA 07:39 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4749 RDU 15:48 → LGA 17:33 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2036 Delta	RDU 06:00	LGA 07:39	9%	3%	1.3%	no record
AA 1812 American	RDU 07:01	LGA 08:45	16%	5%	1.9%	no record
AA 4774 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 09:07	LGA 10:53	16%	4%	1.6%	68%
AA 2727 American	RDU 13:06	LGA 14:51	31%	7%	1.1%	no record
DL 2017 Delta	RDU 17:10	LGA 18:47	34%	12%	0.8%	no record
AA 4749 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 15:48	LGA 17:33	37%	12%	1.4%	75%worse than usual
DL 4689 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 06:00	LGA 07:43	17%	9%	4.2%	83%
DL 4685 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 13:09	LGA 15:00	27%	21%	12.7%	73%
DL 4956 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 08:30	LGA 10:12	32%	22%	2.6%	68%
DL 5101 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 19:59	LGA 21:58	35%	20%	7.2%	65%
DL 5184 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 15:01	LGA 16:44	40%	22%	7.9%	60%
DL 4667 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 11:29	LGA 13:12	45%	27%	7.5%	55%
DL 5180 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 17:05	LGA 18:52	56%	44%	18.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON