Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5230 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 08:00	MCI 09:42	15%	7%	2.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471	5h 28m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	2h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 10:02 → MCI 11:35DL 1349	6h 35m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908	5h 51m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826	5h 11m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443	5h 31m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	RDU 07:30 → ATL 09:00DL 2478	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → MCI 12:18DL 2747	5h 48m	98%	86%
American Details →	RDU 06:24 → CLT 07:34AA 1903	1h 17m Charlotte	CLT 08:51 → MCI 10:25AA 2946	5h 01m	96%	86%
American Details →	RDU 05:54 → PHL 07:32AA 2781	2h 48m Philadelphia	PHL 10:20 → MCI 12:31AA 1480	7h 37m	98%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m New York	LGA 19:55 → MCI 22:21DL 563	6h 16m	44%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON