Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4764 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4764 RDU 07:36 → MCO 09:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1319 RDU 17:03 → MCO 19:05 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4764 Southwest	RDU 07:36	MCO 09:25	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:00	MCO 07:47	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
WN 3566 Southwest	RDU 12:31	MCO 14:20	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1377 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:26	MCO 13:15	10%	3%	0.7%	84%
WN 2971 Southwest	RDU 19:11	MCO 20:59	16%	8%	0.9%	no record
F9 1111 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 14:31	MCO 16:32	20%	10%	4.4%	69%
DL 1319 Delta Flight history →	RDU 17:03	MCO 19:05	20%	9%	2.4%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON