Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 395 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 395 RDU 06:14 → MIA 08:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1891 RDU 19:19 → MIA 21:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 395 American Flight history →	RDU 06:14	MIA 08:30	8%	2%	1.1%	90%
DL 890 Delta Flight history →	RDU 08:15	MIA 10:26	13%	3%	0.8%	82%
AA 3122 American	RDU 08:30	MIA 10:47	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 2321 American Flight history →	RDU 11:22	MIA 13:40	17%	5%	0.9%	96%worse than usual
AA 3281 American	RDU 17:00	MIA 19:21	29%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 1891 American Flight history →	RDU 19:19	MIA 21:35	30%	10%	1.4%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON