Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1482 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1482 RDU 06:05 → ORD 07:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2949 RDU 18:23 → ORD 19:51 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1482 United	RDU 06:05	ORD 07:32	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 2849 American Flight history →	RDU 07:03	ORD 08:25	13%	4%	1.5%	85%
UA 2826 United	RDU 08:10	ORD 09:35	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1448 United Flight history →	RDU 10:00	ORD 11:26	14%	4%	0.7%	87%
UA 5732 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDU 10:59	ORD 12:29	16%	6%	1.2%	86%
AA 2123 American Flight history →	RDU 09:34	ORD 11:02	16%	5%	1.2%	89%
YX 3406 Republic	RDU 13:07	ORD 14:40	23%	6%	1.3%	no record
YX 4420 Republic	RDU 16:12	ORD 17:45	23%	9%	1.3%	no record
YX 4417 Republic	RDU 19:46	ORD 21:19	25%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 2732 American	RDU 14:53	ORD 16:17	30%	8%	1.3%	no record
UA 481 United	RDU 17:01	ORD 18:31	31%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 2949 American Flight history →	RDU 18:23	ORD 19:51	33%	11%	1.2%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON