Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2781 at 05:54 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2781 RDU 05:54 → PHL 07:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 1441 RDU 17:42 → PHL 19:26 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2781 American Flight history →	RDU 05:54	PHL 07:32	8%	4%	1.0%	82%
AA 896 American Flight history →	RDU 08:12	PHL 09:52	14%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 706 American	RDU 10:32	PHL 12:11	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
YX 4800 Republic	RDU 19:18	PHL 20:58	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 3152 American	RDU 12:44	PHL 14:23	21%	7%	0.7%	no record
F9 2060 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 13:30	PHL 15:01	24%	11%	1.2%	75%
AA 5663 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 15:05	PHL 16:34	27%	11%	1.3%	84%worse than usual
AA 1441 American Flight history →	RDU 17:42	PHL 19:26	29%	10%	0.7%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON