Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3415 Southwest	RDU 13:36	PHX 15:12	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 51m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	1h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 43m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:33 → DTW 07:16DL 1388	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	7h 11m	97%	87%
American Details →	RDU 09:43 → BNA 10:34AA 4762 · flown by Republic	3h 43m Nashville	BNA 14:17 → PHX 16:19AA 3086	9h 36m	100%	87%
United Details →	RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789	1h 40m Dulles	IAD 08:51 → PHX 10:40UA 709	7h 40m	98%	87%
American Details →	RDU 05:56 → DFW 07:56AA 1088	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06AA 2905	8h 10m	99%	86%
American Details →	RDU 06:24 → CLT 07:34AA 1903	2h 07m Charlotte	CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986	7h 40m	98%	86%
American Details →	RDU 05:54 → PHL 07:32AA 2781	3h 16m Philadelphia	PHL 10:48 → PHX 12:58AA 478	10h 04m	98%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RDU 15:05 → PHL 16:34AA 5663 · flown by PSA	56m Philadelphia	PHL 17:30 → PHX 19:37AA 1984	7h 32m	67%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON