tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4532 American flown by Republic Flight history → RDU 08:00 PIT 09:25 6% 2% 0.6% 90%
YX 4440 Republic RDU 18:28 PIT 20:05 15% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:03 → PIT 10:45DL 1363 5h 35m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → RDU 06:20 → ATL 07:46DL 1192 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 32m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 5h 52m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → RDU 17:25 → ATL 19:01DL 1550 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583 5h 35m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → RDU 11:15 → ATL 12:42DL 1699 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 5h 53m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → RDU 06:00 → IAD 07:11UA 1789 1h 19m Dulles IAD 08:30 → PIT 09:40UA 6119 · flown by Mesa 3h 40m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → RDU 12:40 → ATL 14:08DL 2052 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:47DL 3122 6h 07m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → RDU 05:54 → PHL 07:32AA 2781 1h 34m Philadelphia PHL 09:06 → PIT 10:30AA 3236 4h 36m 97% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RDU 18:19 → DCA 19:31AA 5404 · flown by PSA 1h 04m Washington DCA 20:35 → PIT 21:45AA 4763 · flown by Republic 3h 26m 64% 51%
DeltaDetails → RDU 17:05 → LGA 18:52DL 5180 · flown by Endeavor 2h 28m New York LGA 21:20 → PIT 23:09DL 5722 · flown by Republic 6h 04m 70% 48%
AmericanDetails → RDU 15:48 → LGA 17:33AA 4749 · flown by Republic 46m New York LGA 18:19 → PIT 19:56AA 4579 · flown by Republic 4h 08m 38% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON