Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 354 RDU 06:38 → SEA 09:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 651 RDU 19:12 → SEA 21:49 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 354 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:38	SEA 09:25	11%	2%	0.6%	85%
AS 670 Alaska Flight history →	RDU 07:02	SEA 09:56	17%	3%	0.8%	74%
AS 651 Alaska	RDU 19:12	SEA 21:49	20%	5%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	RDU 06:00 → MSP 07:46DL 2538	1h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 09:58 → ATL 11:22DL 2634	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	7h 52m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	RDU 05:10 → ATL 06:28DL 1552	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444	7h 44m	97%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON